{"id":28152,"date":"2025-01-06T22:15:06","date_gmt":"2025-01-07T03:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cinemadailyus.com\/?p=28152"},"modified":"2025-01-14T10:49:04","modified_gmt":"2025-01-14T15:49:04","slug":"oscars-precursors-rundown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cinemadailyus.com\/?p=28152","title":{"rendered":"The Oscars: What to Look for in the Two Months Leading Up to Oscar Night"},"content":{"rendered":"

2024 has been quite a year for movies. Hopefully you\u2019ve already read the <\/span>Top 10 favorite movies<\/span><\/a> picked by the <\/span>Cinema Daily US<\/span><\/i> staff, and with Sunday\u2019s Golden Globes<\/a>* in the rearview mirror, we\u2019re well and fully into the two months leading up to Oscar night on March 2. (*Note the asterisk next to the night’s winners in the article below.)<\/span><\/p>\n

Starting on Wednesday, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the 10,000 strong industry group that selects the Oscars each year,\u00a0 will begin picking the 2024 films, performances and crafts they think are better than all others. Many of these movies premiered on the festival circuit, whether it was Sundance last January or Cannes in May or any of the September festivals i.e. Venice, Telluride, TIFF, and the <\/span>New York Film Festival<\/span><\/a>. At this point, many Americans and hopefully a majority of Academy members have already seen the films in the awards discussion.<\/span><\/p>\n

More importantly, this week will see the release of nominations from the <\/span>Directors Guild<\/span><\/a> (DGA), <\/span>Screen Actors Guild<\/span><\/a> (SAG), the <\/span>Writers Guild<\/span><\/a> (WGA), and the <\/span>Producers Guild<\/span><\/a> (PGA) \u2013 all who are quite significant and pivotal since all four groups are made up of those in the industry who actually make movies rather than those who just watch, review and write about them.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Mark Eydelshteyn and Mikey Madison in Anora (courtesy NEON)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Based on general buzz from the past five or six months, there are five movies that seem to be ahead of all others in terms of their chances of getting Best Picture nominations:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Sean Baker\u2019s drama <\/span>Anora
\n<\/i><\/b>Edward Berger\u2019s drama <\/span>Conclave<\/i><\/b>
\n<\/i><\/b>*Brady Corbet\u2019s drama <\/span>The Brutalist
\n<\/i><\/b>*Jacques Audiard\u2019s musical <\/span>Emilia Perez<\/i><\/b>, and
\n<\/span>Jon M. Chu\u2019s musical <\/span>Wicked\u00a0<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

A couple movies fall on the outskirts of those five, including Coralie Fargeat\u2019s horror film <\/span>The Substance<\/i><\/b> and Denis Villeneuve\u2019s sequel, <\/span>Dune Part Two<\/i><\/b>. The latter was released all the way back in March, which gives it a slight disadvantage of being remembered, though Warner Bros. has been screening it a lot to remind Oscar voters. Another movie that\u2019s received a lot of critical attention in recent months is <\/span>RaMell Ross<\/span><\/a>\u2019 adaptation of Colson Whitehead\u2019s award-winning novel, <\/span>Nickel Boys<\/i><\/b>, which was the opening night of the New York Film Festival this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

A movie that first premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) all the way back in September 2023 is the prison drama <\/span>Sing Sing<\/i><\/b>, starring Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, the latter who was incarcerated at Sing Sing. Similar, Jesse Eisenberg\u2019s second feature as a director, the comedy <\/span>A Real Pain<\/i><\/b>, has gotten a lot of attention for Eisenberg\u2019s screenplay and for the performance by Kieran Culkin since it\u2019s Sundance debut in January last year. The Iranian film <\/span>The Seed of the Sacred Fig<\/i><\/b> from director <\/span>Mohammad Rasoulof<\/span><\/a>, who had to make his film in a secret before being exiled from Iran. Fortunately, Germany took him in, and they\u2019ve also taken his film as its Oscar submission.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Other recent films that have been in the conversation include the drama <\/span>September 5<\/i><\/b>, James Mangold\u2019s Bob Dylan biopic <\/span>A Complete Unknown<\/i><\/b>, and Ridley Scott\u2019s action sequel, <\/span>Gladiator II<\/i><\/b>, following 25 years after his Oscar-winning earlier film.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Cynthia Erivo and Ariane Grande in Wicked (courtesy Universal)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Four of the \u201ctop five\u201d \u2013 as we\u2019ll refer to them \u2013 had prestigious festival premieres, while <\/span>Wicked<\/i><\/b> has grossed more than $400 million since opening in mid-November, making it the biggest movie in Oscar contention in terms of box office.<\/span><\/p>\n

Two Oscar categories that seem jampacked with possibilities this year, include the Lead Actress and the Directing categories. If you consider that any Best Picture winner might normally (but not always) have a corresponding Best Director nomination, this is important, because when the DGA announce its five directing nominations on Wednesday, that will immediately give a bump to those five movies. When SAG announce its five Ensemble Cast nominees, also on Wednesday, that gives an edge to those five movies since the acting branch of the Academy (many who are also SAG members) is in fact the largest branch. The movies that receive SAG Ensemble nominations shows important support among the actors with winners in the category being precursors to recent Best Picture wins for the likes of <\/span>CODA<\/i><\/b> and <\/span>Parasite<\/i><\/b>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Looking at the top five Best Picture nominees, all five could go one-to-one with the SAG Ensemble category, but there are other movies with equally impressive casts, including <\/span>Sing Sing<\/i><\/b>, <\/span>September 5<\/i><\/b>, <\/span>Saturday Night<\/i><\/b>, <\/span>A Complete Unknown<\/i><\/b>, and <\/span><\/i>Nickel Boys<\/i><\/b>. <\/span><\/i>If any of those five movies receive a SAG Ensemble nomination on Wednesday, their chances of receiving more Oscar support is greatly increased. If the \u201ctop five\u201d movies mentioned receive nominations from all four of the guilds, it confirms their strength at the Oscars.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Emilia<\/a>
Karla Sofia Gascon in Emilia Perez (courtesy Netflix)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As of now, some of the actresses that have been in the conversation for the Lead Actress category are:<\/span><\/p>\n

Mikey Madison from <\/span>Anora<\/i><\/b>
\n<\/i><\/b>Karla Sofia Gascon from <\/span>Emilia Perez<\/i><\/b>
\n<\/i><\/b>Cynthia Erivo from <\/span>Wicked<\/i><\/b>
\n<\/i><\/b>*Demi Moore from <\/span>The Substance<\/i><\/b>
\n<\/b>Angelina Jolie from <\/span>Maria<\/i><\/b>
\n<\/i><\/b>Nicole Kidman from <\/span>Babygirl<\/i><\/b>
\n<\/i><\/b>Marianne Jean-Baptiste from Mike Leigh\u2019s <\/span>Hard Truths<\/i><\/b>
\n<\/b>*Fernanda Torres from Walter Salles\u2019 <\/span>I\u2019m Still Here<\/i><\/b>
\n<\/span>Pamela Anderson from <\/span>The Last Showgirl<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

Note that the first three of those are from what I\u2019ve deemed to be the top five Best Picture nominees, while Moore is from a movie that also has a potential to get a Best Picture nomination. Not that it matters, since there have been many women who were nominated and even won for Lead Actress without a corresponding Best Picture. Case in point: Julianne Moore for <\/span>Still Alice<\/i><\/b>, Jessica Chastain for <\/span>The Eyes of Tammy Faye<\/i><\/b>, and Ren\u00e9e Zellwegger in <\/span>Judy<\/i><\/b>. All three of them won for Lead Actress despite their movies not getting much Oscar support otherwise. There are five potential actress nominees who fit into that realm, including Angelina Jolie who wasn\u2019t shortlisted by BAFTA, making it less likely for her to get in, unless she wins the Golden Globe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Because of this, the SAG nominations should help clarify things just as the Academy starts voting, although it\u2019s doubtful the two groups will go five for five in any category. In fact, just by its nature, the Academy has a much more international membership that could help actresses like Jean-Baptiste and Torres get into the Oscar nominations, even if they are snubbed by SAG.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones in The Brutalist (courtesy A24)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

By comparison, the Lead Actor category generally seems to be limited to five specific actors and performances. Chances are that five of the six nominees for the Golden Globes\u2019 category for Lead Actor in a Drama will carry through to get Oscar nominations, but the five actors SAG nominates will be crucial. For instance, if SAG nominates Sebastian Stan for either of his two performances for which he received Golden Globe nominations, that gives him a slight bump for an Oscar nomination. Otherwise, Adrien Brody* (<\/span>The Brutalist<\/i><\/b>), Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet (<\/span>A Complete Unknown<\/i><\/b>), Ralph Fiennes (<\/span>Conclave<\/i><\/b>), and Colman Domingo (<\/span>Sing Sing<\/i><\/b>) seem to be shoe-ins for the category, and it\u2019s just that fifth slot with Daniel Craig also being in the running for Luca Guadagnino\u2019s (<\/span>Queer<\/i><\/b>). Sebastian Stan won the Golden Globe for the indie,\u00a0A Different<\/strong> Man<\/strong><\/em>, but a SAG nomination would be even better.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Supporting Actor and Actress categories have been shaping up over the last few months with actresses in the conversation being Zoe Salda\u00f1a* (<\/span>Emilia Perez<\/i><\/b>), Ariana Grande (<\/span>Wicked<\/i><\/b>), Felicity Jones (<\/span>The Brutalist<\/i><\/b>), and Isabella Rossellini (<\/span>Conclave<\/i><\/b>) \u2013 all of them representing Best Picture frontrunners. Others in the mix including Aujanue Ellis-Taylor (<\/span>Nickel Boys<\/i><\/b>), Danielle Deadwyler (<\/span>The Piano Lesson<\/i><\/b>), Margaret Qualley (<\/span>The Substance<\/i><\/b>), Selena Gomez (<\/span>Emilia Perez<\/b>), and Monica Barbaro (<\/span>A Complete Unknown<\/i><\/b>), all fighting it out for that last nomination slot. Again, SAG will tell us a lot about this race, because only the first four actresses received Golden Globe nominations.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Supporting Actors in contention include Kieran Culkin* (<\/span>A Real Pain<\/i><\/b>), Guy Pearce (<\/span>The Brutalist<\/i><\/b>), Clarence Maclin (<\/span>Sing Sing<\/i><\/b>), <\/span>Yura Borisov<\/span><\/a> (<\/span>Anora<\/i><\/b>), Denzel Washington (<\/span>Gladiator II<\/i><\/b>), and <\/span>Edward Norton<\/span><\/a> in <\/span>A Complete Unknown<\/i><\/b>. Five of those six received Golden Globe nominations, but there are others that have been mentioned, including Stanley Tucci in <\/span>Conclave<\/i><\/b>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Edward Berger and Ralph Fiennes on the set of Conclave (photo courtesy Focus Features)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The directing category also has more possibilities and options than nominations slots. Many have been presuming that at least four of the directors associated with the \u201ctop 5\u201d films will be nominated, so that would be <\/span>Sean Baker<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Edward Berger<\/span><\/a>, Brady Corbet*, and Jacques Audiard. Oddly, there\u2019s been less talk about Jon M. Chu\u2019s direction for <\/span>Wicked<\/i><\/b>, even though that\u2019s a huge achievement that\u2019s paid off commercially. It\u2019s also the first part of a two-parter that concludes later this year, so some Academy voters might want to see if he sticks the landing ala Peter Jackson with his <\/span>The Lord of the Rings <\/i><\/b>trilogy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Denis Villeneuve didn\u2019t receive a directing nomination for the first chapter of <\/span>Dune<\/i><\/b>, so many people assumed he might get nominated for <\/span>Dune Part 2<\/i><\/b>, <\/span><\/i>and yet, he seems to be getting pushed further and further down the ranking. In fact, French filmmaker Coralie Fargeat may have more traction for <\/span>The Substance<\/i><\/b>, considering how much heat that movie has had since debuting at Cannes. Similarly, <\/span>Mohammad Rasoulof<\/span><\/a>, director of <\/span>The Seed of the Sacred Fig <\/i><\/b>should benefit from how much support international filmmakers have received from the Academy\u2019s directors\u2019 branch in recent years. That leaves out the likes of Ridley Scott and James Mangold, who are hugely respected by their industry peers but haven\u2019t been in the conversations leading up to the Oscars. (In fact, Mangold has never been nominated by the Academy for his directing, which is shocking.) The DGA is probably going to clarify a lot for those wondering which films actual directors appreciate the most, but that group doesn\u2019t always go five-for-five with the Oscars either.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Paul Mescal in Gladiator II (Courtesy Paramount Pictures)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Every\u00a0 year, the Producers Guild (PGA) announces ten nominations for Best Picture, but they don\u2019t necessarily line up 10 for 10 with the Academy since the latter expanded its category to ten nominations. The PGA tends to consider box office success when selecting their ten nominees, so smaller international features like <\/span>Hard Truths<\/i><\/b>, <\/span><\/i>I\u2019m Still Here<\/i><\/b>, and <\/span>The Seed of a Sacred Fig <\/i><\/b>would have a tougher time there, being that they haven\u2019t received significant theatrical releases in North America as of this writing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lastly, the Writers Guild is an interesting factor, because it nominates ten screenplays, split evenly between adapted and original categories. The WGA is also notorious for declaring screenplays not written under WGA\u2019s contract ineligible for their awards. Some of the screenplays that have already been eliminated include <\/span>Conclave*<\/i><\/b>, <\/span>Emilia P\u00e9rez<\/i><\/b>, <\/span>Sing Sing<\/i><\/b>, <\/span>The Brutalist<\/i><\/b>, <\/span><\/i>Hard Truths<\/i><\/b>, <\/span><\/i>The Seed of the Sacred Fig<\/i><\/b>, <\/span><\/i>September 5<\/i><\/b>, and <\/span><\/i>The Substance<\/i><\/b>. That\u2019s three of the \u201ctop five\u201d that will not receive WGA nominations but could still be nominated by the Academy writing branch. This gives Sean Baker\u2019s screenplay for <\/span>Anora<\/i><\/b> a distinct advantage, and it could also help the screenplays for <\/span>Wicked <\/i><\/b>and even <\/span>Gladiator II<\/i><\/b> get into the WGA nominations with much of their competition removed. RaMell Ross\u2019 screenplay for <\/span>Nickel Boys<\/i><\/b> is also looking like a strong contender for WGA\u2019s adapted screenplay frontrunner, which helps it with an Oscar nomination.<\/span><\/p>\n

One aspect of the Oscar lead-up not covered by those four guilds mentioned include the Academy members in various below-the-line categories, such as cinematography, editing, costumes, hair and make-up, etc. Most of those groups have their own guilds, who have already announced their nominees, but most of them won\u2019t hand out their awards until sometime later in February. As far as the Oscars, though, that\u2019s a large group that might nominate films for Best Picture for different reasons than those other groups.<\/span><\/p>\n

To wrap things up, trying to predict what movies and performances might make their way to Oscar night has never been an exact science, and there is always room for surprises, but this week\u2019s guild nominations will go a long way to letting people know which movies to watch before Oscar night.<\/span><\/p>\n

Oscar nominations will be announced on the morning of Friday, January 17, and then the Oscar ceremony will take place on March 2, airing on ABC.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2024 has been quite a year for movies. Hopefully you\u2019ve already read the Top 10 favorite movies picked by the Cinema Daily US staff, and with Sunday\u2019s Golden Globes* in the rearview mirror, we\u2019re well and fully into the two months leading up to Oscar night on March 2. (*Note the asterisk next to the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":559,"featured_media":28155,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[335],"tags":[19318,18806,24695,25623,21546,23407,117,398,23578,23628,5198],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat To Look For Leading Up to Oscar Night<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oscar night is less than two weeks away, and Cinema Daily US writer Edward Douglas breaks down how this week will affect the Oscars.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cinemadailyus.com\/?p=28152\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What To Look For Leading Up to Oscar Night\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" 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