The 93rd Academy Awards air this coming Sunday, with a full slate of nominated films, artisans, and performers. Nomadland seems firmly headed for a Best Picture win, and a number of the other categories also appear to be locked up. There are a few competitive races still up in the air, and there’s one in particular where any of the five nominees has a serious shot to win. Put simply, it’s the most unpredictable and enthralling Best Actress contest in years.
Let’s start with the five women and their performances.
Andra Day makes her film debut as the title character in The United States vs. Billie Holiday, leaving an unforgettable impression as the tortured and targeted singer. Viola Davis is buried under layers of makeup in her memorable turn as another famed singer in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Vanessa Kirby channels heartbreak and melancholy as a mother mourning unbelievable loss in Pieces of a Woman. Frances McDormand disappears into the role of a woman living a nomad life in Nomadland. And Carey Mulligan eviscerates all men in her path as a former medical student intent on holding abusers accountable in Promising Young Woman.
All five of these turns are excellent, and they would all deserve to be announced as the winner on Sunday night. But what makes this contest – the grand finale to an extended awards season – of special interest is that no one can claim to know who is going to win. Each of the influential precursor groups have selected a different honoree. Day won the Golden Globe but wasn’t nominated by SAG or BAFTA.
Davis was crowned the victor by SAG and Mulligan was the Critics’ Choice, but neither of them were even on the ballot at BAFTA. McDormand triumphed there, but Kirby was her only Oscar-shortlisted competition. Now, they’re all squaring off, but there’s no indication of any frontrunner given a wide variety of choices over the last few months.
Looking back at history, which typically provides examples of what to expect, there are few instances anywhere near this wild and unpredictable in the Best Actress category. Most recently, in 2018, Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) was a presumed frontrunner who managed to tie with Glenn Close (The Wife), the Globe drama and SAG choice, at the Critics’ Choice Awards, but they both lost to Olivia Colman (The Favourite) at the Oscars, after she picked up steam following her Globe comedy win by claiming the BAFTA trophy. In 2016, Natalie Portman (Jackie) looked like she could win at the start of awards season, but ended up taking home only the Critics’ Choice Award, while Emma Stone (La La Land) won the comedy Globe, SAG, BAFTA, and ultimately the Oscar.
2016 is one of two times before this year that the Globe drama winner wasn’t even nominated by SAG, which has been giving out awards since 1994. Isabelle Huppert rebounded after that miss by earning an Oscar bid for Elle in 2016, and Sharon Stone did the same thing back in 1995 for Casino. If anything, 1995 provides the best point of comparison because of the unusual diversity of winners. Nicole Kidman was the Globe comedy choice as well as the Critics’ Choice in their first year of honorees for To Die For. She didn’t end up earning an Oscar nomination, but Globe winner Stone and BAFTA pick Emma Thompson (Sense and Sensibility) did. It was Susan Sarandon, who won the SAG for Dead Man Walking, who ended up victorious on Oscar night.
There are other factors to consider, like the fact that checking off these wins en route to an Oscar is simply a trend, not a requirement. Crossover doesn’t exist between the membership of the Hollywood Foreign Press, which hands out the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Association, and the other groups, whereas there is overlap between the Academy, SAG, and BAFTA, which might give weight to one organization’s decision as influential. Day and Davis are also playing real people, and Diana Ross was previously nominated for portraying Billie Holiday back in 1972. A victory for either Day or Davis would be significant as, currently, Halle Berry is the only Black woman ever to win this award (Davis’ win in 2016 for Fences was in the supporting category).
Support for the films themselves is also important. Day and Kirby represent the lone nominations for each of their projects, while Davis’ film missed out on a Best Picture bid despite four other nominations, including for her late costar Chadwick Boseman, who is expected to win Best Actor.
With McDormand’s film teed up to win Best Picture, it stands to reason that she could get a boost from that. She’ll also become only the seventh performer to win more than two acting Oscars after previous victories in this category for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Fargo, joining Daniel Day-Lewis, Jack Nicholson, and Meryl Streep as the only living actors to win three prizes. Mulligan’s movie is popular too, though it’s looking more and more like its only win may be for its screenplay, if it can overcome the juggernaut that is The Trial of the Chicago 7 and its writer Aaron Sorkin.
Those who obsess over Oscar statistics and put money on who is going to win each category are salivating over the wide-open nature of this race. Everyone else watching at home may not be familiar with the rollercoaster nature of this season and this category in particular, but they’ll be as surprised as anyone when a winner is called.